Now we have 2018
1. Auto repair shops go away. A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual
parts. An electrical engine has 20. Electric cars are sold with
lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only 10
minutes to remove and replace an electric engine. Faulty electric
engines are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional
repair shop that repairs them with robots. Essentially, if your
electric “Check Motor” light comes on, you simply drive up to what looks
like a car wash. Your car is towed through while you have a cup of
coffee and out comes your car with a new engine.
2. Gas stations go away. Parking meters are replaced by meters that
dispense electricity. All companies install electrical recharging stations.
3. All major auto manufacturers have already designated 5-6 billion
dollars each to start building new plants that only build electric cars.
4. Coal industries go away. Oil companies go away.
Drilling for oil stops.
5. Homes produce and store more electrical energy during the day and
then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it
and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users.
A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.
1. The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle!
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper
worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next
5-10 years and, most people won’t see it coming.
Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had
10,000 pixels, but followed Moore ‘s law. So as with all exponential
technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way
superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now
happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health,
autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age!!
2. Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10
3 Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, yet they are now
the biggest taxi company in the world.
4. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they
don’t own any properties.
5. Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player
in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
6. In the U.S., young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of
IBM’s Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less
basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70%
accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop
immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only
omniscient specialists will remain.
6A. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more
accurate than human nurses.
7. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize
faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more
intelligent than humans.
8. Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will
appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry
will start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore.
You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location
and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you
only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving.
The very young children of today will never get a driver’s license and
will never own a car.
8A. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars
for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now
have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous
driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles (10 million km).
That will save a million lives worldwide each year.
8B. Most car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car
companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car,
while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary
approach and build a computer on wheels.
8C. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of
9. Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without
accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car
insurance business model will disappear.
10. Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you
commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful
11. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020.
Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.
12. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar
production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can
now see the burgeoning impact.
13. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to
prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply
cannot continue… technology will take care of that strategy.
14. With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.
Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter
(@ 0.25 cents). We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only
have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone
can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
15. Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this
year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called
the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes
your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.
It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any
disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet
will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.
16. 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from
$18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100
times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D
17. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote
airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need
for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
18. At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect
shoe at home.
19. In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story
office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will
be 3D printed.
20. Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go
in, first ask yourself: “In the future, do I think we will have
that?” And, if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
20A. If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. Any idea
designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the
20B. Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There
will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough
new jobs in such a short time.
21. Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the
future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of
their field instead of working all day on their fields.
22. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced
veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in
2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows.
Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore.
23. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to
the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be
labeled as “alternative protein source” (because most people still
reject the idea of eating insects).